Near the north end of Tapo Canyon Road, the concrete cart paths of a golf club that closed a decade ago are about to become public hiking trails. The fairways next to them are set to become 364 homes built by Toll Brothers. A Newport Pacific Land Co. executive told the Ventura County Star they would start around 3,000 square feet and probably sell for between $1 million and $2 million.
For a buyer working in that price range in Simi Valley today, the project raises a practical question. Waiting for it means waiting several years, buying a fairly small lot behind a gate, and passing on a resale market that has given buyers more room this year than last. Here is what the record shows about each part of that trade.
The same 364 homes, approved again and again
Lost Canyons has been heading toward housing for a long time. That history explains why the 2026 vote reads as a refinement of an old plan, not the start of a new one.
- 2001. Lost Canyons opened with two 18-hole courses.
- February 2011. The Simi Valley Acorn reported that the City Council unanimously approved rezoning the roughly 1,770-acre site for 364 single-family homes on the Shadow Course. Under that plan the Sky Course would stay open as a private course.
- June 1, 2016. The public club closed as play declined and redevelopment plans moved forward.
- September 2020. The Planning Commission approved the first phase's design and architecture. The plan still included 364 homes, a semi-private golf course and a clubhouse.
- 2024. A revision moved 78 homes and tightened the layout.
- August 10, 2026. The council voted unanimously for the latest revision, which removes the golf course and clubhouse altogether.
The home count has stayed at 364 through every version. What has changed is where the homes sit and what surrounds them.
What the August revision traded away and what it kept
According to the developer, the new plan shrinks the developed footprint and leaves far more of the property as open space.
| Earlier approved plan | August 2026 revision | |
|---|---|---|
| Homes | 364 | 364 |
| Golf | Semi-private course and clubhouse | None |
| Developed area | About 500 acres | Under 300 acres |
| Share of site kept as open space | About 43% | Almost 90% |
| Homes south of Lost Canyons Drive | 178 | Two estate lots |
| Former cart paths | Golf use | Public pedestrian trails |
The relocated homes are going largely onto ground that was already graded or disturbed for the old fairways and streets. A public trailhead is planned at Tapo Canyon Road and Lost Canyons Drive, and the Rancho Simi Recreation and Park District's trails south of Lost Canyons Drive will stay. The Ventura County Star reported that a golf cart path will be repurposed as a hiking trail and donated to the park district.
The two sources describe the southern lots differently. The Star wrote that all homes will sit north of Lost Canyons Drive. The Acorn reported that two estate lots will remain south of the road, reached from Anderson Drive and Ditch Road. A March 2026 city development review summary explains the gap. Those two lots belong to Hillwood Capital, the club's former owner, and they are needed for access to its land in Dry Canyon.
For a future buyer, the result is a denser cluster of homes set on the old north-side fairways and surrounded by protected canyon land and public trails, with no working golf course next door.
What $1 million to $2 million buys inside the gate
The city's March 5, 2026 Neighborhood Council summary lists the lot dimensions the applicant proposed:
- 60 by 100 feet, about 6,000 square feet
- 65 by 100 feet, about 6,500 square feet
- 60 by 120 feet, about 7,200 square feet
- 90 by 110 feet, about 9,900 square feet
According to the same summary, homes will range from 2,000 to 4,000 square feet and the community will be gated. It will keep operating as a private gated community, and the existing lake will be reconfigured as a multipurpose water body filled with potable water. At that meeting, residents raised the exclusivity of a guard-gated community and the use of potable water for the lake.
Taken together, three of the four lot sizes fall between roughly 6,000 and 7,200 square feet. A 3,000-square-foot home or larger on one of those lots leaves a modest yard. Lost Canyons offers a gate, newly built homes, and canyon open space and trails beyond the lot lines. It does not offer acreage. A buyer comparing it with an existing home on a larger lot elsewhere in Simi Valley is weighing those things against each other, not choosing between "new" and "old."
The sources we reviewed don't settle ownership costs. No homeowners association dues, Mello-Roos or community facilities district details turned up in the reporting or the March summary. Until Toll Brothers publishes them, the full monthly cost of a Lost Canyons home is unknown. We didn't find a named Toll Brothers community or interest list for the project either.
The calendar a waiting buyer signs up for
The Star reported in August that Toll Brothers plans to start building homes next year, which means 2027. The first phase would be finished about three years from the article date, putting it around 2029, and the second phase would take another two or three years. Grading of roads and infrastructure was already underway.
Some details are still unresolved. The Star headline called the August 10 vote final. The Acorn's August 14 account described it as initial approval and said "A final OK must still be given." The Acorn also reported questions about whether the developer's claimed environmental benefits were enough and whether the environmental review should be reopened.
The roads around the site are part of the timeline too. Under the specific plan amendment, Tapo Canyon Road between Presidio Drive and Lost Canyons Drive would narrow from 52 to 45 feet. It would have one travel lane each way, bike lanes on both sides, a painted median and a sidewalk on one side, and the signal at Lost Canyons Drive was still under evaluation in March. Tapo Canyon Road improvements first planned for phase five have moved up to phase two.
The sources don't say exactly when the road work will happen relative to the first homes. With a second phase of homes planned two to three years after the first, early buyers would likely live near ongoing construction for some time.
What the resale market offers in the meantime
While Lost Canyons waits on approvals and construction crews, the existing-home market in Ventura County has moved toward buyers. The California Association of Realtors reported these figures for August 2026, published September 16, 2026. They cover existing single-family homes across all of Ventura County, not Simi Valley alone.
- Median price, August 2026: $925,000, down 1.3% from August 2025
- Sales, August 2026: down 11.9% year over year
- Unsold inventory, August 2026: 3.9 months, up from 3.6 months a year earlier
- Median time on market, August 2026: 37 days, down from 41.5 a year earlier
Fewer sales, slightly lower prices and more months of supply all point the same way. Sellers in the county face more competition for each buyer than they did a year ago. Even so, homes that do sell are going under contract a bit faster, which suggests well-priced listings still move.
Builders compete in that same market. At the time of writing, Toll Brothers' page for new homes near Simi Valley advertised a limited-time 5.49% rate, 5.76% APR, on a 30-year fixed loan for select homes. Its nearest listed community, Hidden Oaks in Chatsworth, was priced from $2,199,000. Incentives like that are offered on homes that exist today. Nobody can say what terms Lost Canyons buyers will see around 2029.
That is the core of the trade for a Simi Valley buyer in the $1 million to $2 million range. A buyer who acts now can negotiate in a resale market where months of supply have risen. A buyer who waits gets new construction, a gate, and trailheads close by, on lots that mostly fall between 6,000 and 7,200 square feet, in a phased project whose final sign-off and ownership costs were still open as of the latest reporting.
Questions buyers ask about Lost Canyons
Can I buy a Lost Canyons home now? Not yet. The sources reviewed show no sales office, community name or interest list. Toll Brothers' August timeline has construction starting in 2027.
Will the public have access to the trails? According to the March 2026 city summary, the trails south of Lost Canyons Drive and the converted paths to the north will be publicly accessible. Trailheads with public parking will be built and granted to the park district. The developer will also build an active park area at the Bennett Road trailhead off Tapo Canyon Road.
Are the Ventura County figures the same as Simi Valley's? No. The C.A.R. numbers above cover the whole county. They show the direction of the regional market, not prices for a particular Simi Valley neighborhood or price band.
If you're deciding whether to buy an existing Simi Valley home now or hold out for new construction at Lost Canyons, Rodney Johnson II can compare specific resale homes, lot by lot, against what has been published about the project so far. You can also start with our Simi Valley neighborhood page or current Simi Valley listings. Schedule a Confidential Market Consultation, and we'll go over the numbers with you, including the costs that aren't published yet.
This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.
